May 17, 2025: The longest range weapon the Americans have sent to Ukraine is the ATACMS, with a range of 300 kilometers. Last year Ukrainian long range attacks eliminated numerous warehouses and bunkers containing Russian munitions along with vehicle and aviation fuel. This meant that for several months the Russians were unable to launch major military operations. Attacking with just infantry and no artillery or airstrike support proved suicidal and counterproductive. Russian infantry losses have been so heavy since 2022 that Russia is running out of even untrained and ineffective infantry, and even equipment and weapons for replacements. Ukraine has no choice but to keep defending their country and now it appears that the Russian offensive operations will not only collapse but that the Russian occupation forces in Crimea and eastern Ukraine are so thin that Ukrainian forces could regain these lost territories.

Ukrainian drone strikes have also been hitting Russian air bases where Russian MiG-31 fighter-bombers as well as Tu-22M and Tu-95 bombers are based. At least six of these aircraft have been destroyed or disabled so far. No one anticipated widespread use of drones. This has changed ground, air and naval warfare. Long range drone attacks were terrifying because the attacker was not risking the lives of pilots, who cost over a million dollars to train. Pilots lost in combat cannot be quickly replaced. Drones have no pilots and the men and women who build, program and in some cases operate drones are far from the combat zone. Ukrainian annual drone production now exceeds annual Russian artillery shell production.

While the drones have won the air and naval wars, most of the ground fighting continues. Both Russia and Ukraine are running out of troops. While Russia has more than three times the population of Ukraine, Russian infantry losses are more than five times larger. Russia has run out of infantry and Ukraine is not doing much better. In both countries recruiters, often called kidnappers, are often met with fatal resistance. These shortages have hurt Russia more than Ukraine because Russian offensive operations are stalled. Ukraine has made the most of being on the defensive, developing highly effective defense tactics that minimized their losses and maximized the number of Russians killed. Now Russia is offering tempting cash bonuses to men in Central Asian nations that were once part of the Soviet Union. Even in Central Asia people know that soldiers sent to Ukraine rarely return.

Some Ukrainian commanders believe that victory will go to the last man standing and that is going to be Ukrainians defending their country. Russia has economic problems as well, with the risk of an economic collapse before the end of the year. This is the result of over a decade of sanctions while there was sustained military aid for Ukraine. Although a new American president temporarily halted aid, European NATO countries have pledged nearly $100 billion in weapons assistance. While Europe cannot build enough weapons fast enough, American defense industries are able to supply all the weapons Europe wants. This year the United States suggested that Europe do more for a fellow European country. Europe is also seizing $3.4 billion in Russian assets to compensate European individuals and firms for assets lost in Russia. There are another $237 billion Russian assets in Europe that are also at risk. Russia used to be a major customer for European products. That disappeared after the Ukraine invasion and the Europeans are pessimistic about resuming economic relations with Russia anytime soon. That means the Russian assets remain in Europe and subject to seizure. Europeans now consider Russia a military threat to all of Europe and are rapidly rearming themselves. Sending billions of dollars to Russia is not a good defense strategy.

Meanwhile Russia has no useful allies to supply a lot of weapons. Iran and North Korea are both heavily sanctioned. North Korea can still sell Russia some short range missiles, but these will not win the war. Nor were the 15,000 mercenaries North Korea sent. About half of these men have been killed or disabled so far. North Korea sees this as a way to obtain combat experience so the survivors can return and upgrade the training the 1.3 million man North Korean army.

The Iranian defense industries were recently subjected to substantial Israeli bombing attacks. Factories that build weapons, including those that produce solid fuel motors for missiles were destroyed. Iran also lost most of its air defense systems. Israel has been a very effective unofficial ally of Ukraine. Moreover, about 30 percent of Israelis have Russian and Ukrainian parents or ancestors. All these Israelis oppose the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Meanwhile the Ukrainian attacks deep inside Russia continue, destroying economic and military targets. The Ukrainians use drones costing a few thousand dollars while the Russians defend with diminishing supplies of missiles costing up to $300 million dollars each. Russia has spent itself into a pit. It will take years of peace to get out of this mess.